Recurring news of further deterioration to the outlook of the US economy has raised concern over the possible impact on the stability of IT market in Asia/Pacific including Japan (APJ) region.
In a review of the most recent economic indicators, current IT forecasts, and the economic linkage of APJ and US economies, IDC has developed 2 scenarios of worsening US economic outlook for lead factors associated with IT expenditure.
In the first scenario, IDC's research depicts a moderate 1.7% and 0.9% erosion of its current forecasted APJ IT market growth for 2008 and 2009, respectfully - should the US conditions worsen. In dollar terms, this means USD 4.8 billion and USD 7.5 billion less market potential in 2008 and 2009.
"Even with a slightly less optimistic outlook depicted in our preliminary IT Market forecasts, a further slide in the US outlook will have noted impact on the APJ IT Markets", remarks Gary Koch, associate vice president (IT Spending Research) of IDC, Asia Pacific.
"Economies with greater participation in fulfilling US consumption will feel the brunt of a continued downturn more than others in the region. However, industrial production growth and favorable levels of business investment and public sector spending in several parts of the region will soften this downward pressure on IT spending," added Koch.
IDC's research illustrates that a second more drastic negative scenario for the US economy would result in a stronger influence on the business outlook in the APJ economies. This would result in as much as USD 7.9B and USD 13.6B slashed from IDC's current APJ IT market forecast in 2008 and 2009.
This would push the already very moderate growth rates of IT markets in Korea and Taiwan into negative territory for 2008. While the decline in absolute dollars within IDC's projections are substantial in markets like China and India, the sheer size of these markets diminishes the resulting impact on their growth rates.
Therefore, the APJ regional IT market will still boast moderate growth in both 2008 and 2009, 3.1% and 5.5% respectively.
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